It's Not Easy Making Appy League Predictions

As the play-by-play guy for the Princeton Rays, with the season just about to start, more and more I'll be asked, "How are the Rays gonna do this year?"

Right now, the best answer is, "I have no idea."

That's due to how things work in a rookie-level circuit like the Appalachian League. Opening Day is June 23, but we won't know which teams have which players until just a few days before.

Predicting how a Major League team will do, or a AAA or AA team, is comparatively easy. Prognosticators usually know well in advance which player will be at which level, and can reference each player's performance in the Cactus or Grapefruit leagues.

Meanwhile, players that will ultimately wind up on Appy League teams are in "extended spring training," which has been going on since started higher-level teams (MLB/AAA/AA/Full-Season A) began their regular seasons in late March/early April.

By now, each organization has a pretty good idea which players will wind up in the Appy League, a step above in a Short-Season A league, or a step below in the Gulf Coast League.

But that knowledge is only temporary.

The annual First-Year Amateur Draft starts June 9. When it's over, each organization will have selected about 50 new players, which will have to signed, evaluated, and assigned to a team. Some players won't be signed in time to play this season. Many others, usually lower-round selections, will sign quickly and make at least a cursory appearance at extended spring training.

The influx of new players puts the potential rosters of low minor league teams teams in turmoil. A player who may have been a lock for an Appy League spot, for example, could get moved up or down a level depending on who his organization drafts. That player may not know which team he's assigned to until the very day that team breaks camp.

Obtaining statistics from extended spring training can be a daunting task. Finding a position player's batting average or a pitcher's ERA isn't nearly as simple as it is when it comes to MLB or the higher minor leagues. Which makes it difficult to tell who's excelling and who's struggling in the run-up to the regular season.

On top of that, in the Appy League, even when the rosters are set, they're certainly not set in stone. Player turnover is a fact of life and changes come at the strangest of times.

Case in point: Last season, Princeton hosted Pulaski on Opening Day. Literally just minutes before the first pitch, someone from the Mariners' organization hurried to the press box to announce that the two draft picks had just signed and would be joining the team shortly. As that announcement was made, two players, carrying their luggage, walked across the field to the Mariners' dugout.


There are certain things that are a given in the Appalachian League no matter what the year.

But the only sure thing is that there are no sure things.